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SITREP 29 29 APR 05
GENERAL SITUATION:
There are three news items worth mentioning this week.
Item 1 is the announcement that the African Union (AU) plans
to increase its force from its
present 2,200 to 7,700 by the end of September of this year. The intended
force will include
5,500 military personnel, 1,600 civilian police and 700 military
observers. Note that I use ‘plans’
and ‘intended’ rather than ‘will’ and ‘guaranteed’. We shall have to wait and
see what materializes.
Item 2 is the internecine squabbling among the Southern
factions. As I mentioned in earlier
SITREPS, there is little unity within the SPLM, nor do the numerous
other political entities in the
South all look on the SPLM as their representative in the new government. I do
not believe that many of
these groups even recognize the legitimacy of the CPA or of the new
government. Many of the independent
militias are under the control of no formal party or recognized political
entity. Due to the isolation of the entire
South, there is not nearly the journalistic coverage of the area that would be
desirable. ‘The rest of the story’
has yet to be heard from Southern Sudan, and I fear that when it is heard it
will be no pleasanter than most
of the stories emanating from this unfortunate land.
Item 3 is the nausea surrounding the casualty figures
released by the United States Department of State
(USDOS). Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick and the Washington
Post’s squabble over the total
number killed reminds me of medieval religious scholars debating as to how
many angels could dance on
the head of a pin. Whether it is the lowest (USDOS low end estimate) figure of
60,000, or the highest
(international aid organizations’ top end estimate) of 400,000, it is an
awful lot of dead human beings! Whether
it is genocide or just mass murder also seems irrelevant to me. And no
government really wants genocide
declared because of the legal and diplomatic requirement that immediate
remedial action must be taken if it is declared.
The UN will be able to take no meaningful action in Darfur
(even if it had any hope of doing anything more
worthwhile than just passing another resolution), as China will veto any plan
with teeth in it because of its oil
investment in the Sudan and its cozy relations with the present Sudanese
government. The 16 APR 05
announcement of the discovery of a probable 500,000 bbl per day oilfield
in the Darfur area will only exacerbate
an already horrible situation. I have some possible solutions, but I had
probably better not go into them now.
JMC OPERATIONS:
Things have been a little quieter this past week. There are
some ongoing issues that are being monitored
and/or resolved. A dispute as to whether White Lake in the Extreme
southern end of Sector 3 lies in the
GOS Northern area or in the SPLM/A Southern area will take some work to
resolve, but the immediate threat
of an outbreak of hostilities seems unlikely.
Preparations for the UN takeover in late June continue. Whether the UN will be ready still remains to be seen.
MICHAEL’S WORLD:
The familiarization & orientation course is well on its way
to completion. I am hopeful that it will be
wrapped up next week. And then, of course, there’s my leave. 13 days to
D(eparture) Day! That’s it for this week.
I hope that you are all well. Michael
SITREP 30 06 MAY 05
GENERAL SITUATION:
There don’t seem to be any really significant changes in
the overall situation. Darfur continues to be bad; the UN
continues to fumble, stumble and creep toward a takeover of JMC, and
blunders through its other Sudan commitments.
The thought of so much funding being poured into such a cesspool of
incompetence and inaction is distressing to say the least.
More strongly worded comments on this sorry situation to follow, post EOM.
The question of the security of the oil leases and
concessions in the Sudan is becoming an issue. What this will mean for
the country’s international economic and political relations will be
interesting to observe. More on this later, perhaps?
JMC OPERATIONS:
Plans for the handover/takeover (H/T) with the UN
continue. JMC will be ready at the appointed time. Whether or not the UN
will be ready remains very much in doubt. As of this juncture the UN has
begun its first two week pre-deployment briefing
of approximately thirty five of the planned seven hundred observers.
At this rate it will require eighteen to twenty four months
to complete this phase! There seems to be no guarantee that they will even
have people here for the turnkey take over the
facilities which we will vacate at the appointed time.
We in the JMC F&O training have been advised that the
start of our in country, Nuba Mountain focused operation will
“probably” be moved back another week to ten days at a minimum. Again,
this is due to UN incompetence. This means that
an operation originally intended to commence early in May will now likely
begin around the end of May. The program,
originally intended to be spread over five to six weeks, will now have
to be squeezed into two weeks. This, of course,
presupposes that the UN will have anyone available to train. I am proceeding
as though the course will go off on schedule
on 18 MAY 05 with my colleague, Nick Burrows, taking the first two
weeks of classes. I mean, who knows; the UN might
even get its case in order for once.
There is possibly some good news in all this, however. The
longer the UN takeover is delayed, the less damage they can do.
Let’s hear it for benign neglect!
MIICHAEL’S WORLD:
You guessed it. The main items on this week’s agenda will
be wrapping up the F&O course preparation and LEAVE.
Karen, leave the light on and the key under the mat; I’m coming home for
two weeks plus. Actually, I have no doubt that the
light of my life will be waiting for me when I clear Customs & Immigration.
We have still not received any definite word on whether or
when American monitors will re-deploy to Darfur.
I understand that there are some inter-governmental discussions going on
now that will probably affect the final outcome
in this matter. More information on this as it becomes available.
Next week’s SITREP will be delayed for a few days at least
as I will be in transit on Friday, the day on which
it is normally done. Needless to say, I’m looking forward to seeing
as many of you as possible in the next few weeks.
Michael
____________________________________________
Hello All, December 2005
This is to wish all those who got the SITREP when I was
in the Sudan a Merry Christmas or Happy Chanukah,
and a wonderful and prosperous New Year. A year ago I was in land where
the life we in the United States take for granted
can only be imagined. It is a life so alien that it can only be imagined
but not hoped for in a land in which survival, not creature
comforts, are the main priority. I am back here with my beloved Karen and
among friends. Just the former is really enough for
me to feel thoroughly blessed; the latter is frosting on the cake.
The unfortunate message is that I am afraid that our
creature comforts and security have made us far too complacent,
and given us a sense of priorities that may be our undoing. While the
same people who killed three thousand of us continue to
seek and plan our destuction we unfortunately worry about the civil rights
of the foreign thugs who pursue this destruction. We
wax righteous over the interception of communications from these same
people,as though the interception of international traffic
inimical to us hasn't been SOP for decades. Some of our officials,and
some of our misguided fellow citizens, would have us extend
the rights enjoyed by American citizens to foreign enemies who totally
reject these rights, are doing their best to destroy these rights
and the system that fosters and protects them, and wish nothing but ill
for us. They would also have us warn foreign agents of our
steps aimed at foiling their intentions! This is patently ridiculous. We
are in a fight as serious as any in our history. It is ours to lose.
The blame can be fairly laid at the feet of members of both
political parties, but those who would sacrifice the welfare and safety of
American citizens in order to regain lost political power I think are
particularly reprehensible. Remember, the dead have no need
for civil rights.
But enough on politics! Let us rather enjoy, and be
grateful for, the blessings we enjoy as we approach the Holidays.
We must not, however, lose sight of the reality that these blessings must
be earned and sometimes paid for with .blood, sweat and tears.
My best wishes for a wonderful Holiday Season for you all. For those of
you who have loved ones in harm's way, or soon to deploy,
you and they are in my prayers. Michael