SITREP 3  *  15 OCT 04

GENERAL SITUATION

The rainy season is just about over. Although there are still some wet
spots, and some places that are difficult wet or dry, all of the roads are
useable for 4wd vehicles. The weather is also warming up…+/- 90 degrees F
by mid afternoon. Green foliage is rapidly turning to yellow or brown, and
grass fires are common. These fires are generally beneficial in that they
add potash and other nutrients to the soil, producing a more new grass when
the rains return.

Ramadan, the month long period of daily fasting for all Muslims begins
tonight. I don’t think it will much affect our ops.

The peace talks began this past week in Nairobi. Although I’m sure that
they will eventually produce some results, I don’t see any breakthroughs
occurring in the immediate future. The border between North and South
(affecting as it will the control of the country’s extensive oil reserves)
will obviously require extensive negotiation. Also, diplomats whose only
stock in trade is process, always ensure they remain employed as long as
possible by ensuring that the process drags on as long possible. More peace
later.

OPERATIONS

We are now able to reach many locations by vehicle that were accessible
only by helicopter or foot patrol during the rainy season. Overall poor
road conditions still dictate that most vehicular patrols of more than 75
or so km each way be overnight efforts. This is particularly true since
most patrols involve stopping to talk to locals to get a feel for
conditions and problems in their locales.

F.Y.I. For those unfamiliar with the metric system:

Miles > kilometers = M x 1.61 Km > m = Km x 0.62

We are still using helicopters for many patrols in an effort to reach more
places. In addition, the vehicles are all in need of maintenance after the
hammering they receive during the rainy season.

MICHAEL’S WORLD & THOUGHTS

I continue to be remarkably spry considering the years and (more
importantly) the miles. Just imagine how well I’d be doing if I’d realized
that I would live this long and had taken better care of myself! I continue
to enjoy and find worth in what I am doing. I do miss my friends in the
Land of the Big PX, and of course I particularly miss my beloved Karen. I
am still looking forward to seeing as many of you possible in January when
I plan to come home on leave.

I am even more convinced as I get to know those with whom I work better
(and as they feel more free to talk to me) that there is little desire on
either side at grass roots level for more war in the Nuba. This includes
the junior officers and senior who essential to the combat ops in any
conflict.

GEN Tommy Franks in his excellent autobiography (which I heartily commend
to those of you who have not read it yet) gives his “5 C’s” continuum of
socio-political relations on p 203 in which he lists the states of
relations as: 1. Conflict; 2. Crisis; 3. Coexistence; 4. Collaboration; and
5. Cooperation. As this continuum provides as good a model for discussion
as I’ve seen, I’m going to shamelessly use it.


Conflict: Over, and I would not want to have to get either side “up and at
it” again. We carried out a Military Inspection of a GOS battalion
recently. 200 of the commander’s troops had been levied for duty in the
Darfur AO. The battalion’s heavy weapons (what few they had) were in such
bad shape that I’m not sure that they could be used effectively even after
extensive maintenance. Furthermore, I was told by what I consider an
unimpeachable JMC source that of the GOS Darfur levy a significant
percentage deserted before they arrived. And the GOS forces are the better
of the two opposing forces. We cannot find most of the SPLA troops during
inspections because they are home farming, ala the CSA “plowing furloughs”
during our War of Northern Aggression in the 1860’s. Virtually none of the
troops on either side has more than one magazine for his personal weapon,
nor is there any ammo stored at any of the sites we visit. If you are
thinking that they are cleverly hiding materiel from the dumb monitors, the
official facilities are marginal at best for storage of degradable items
and I would surely not want to fight with anything that was stored in
lesser facilities.

Crisis: Only where criminal elements are exploiting the situation. And
there is at least one area in which this is a problem to be resolved.

Collaboration / Cooperation: most areas fall somewhere within these
categories, and are moving forward.

So, I tend to be sanguine about the prospects for the Nuba Mountain. The
situation is improving, and the JMC is providing useful guidance and
facilitation to the parties as they move toward peace in the area. I have
observed no animosity among the soldiers of either side toward one another;
in fact, they are quite friendly. And it is never easy getting people who
know, like and respect one another, and who have gotten used to peace and a
certain measure of prosperity, to resume hostilities. And that’s it for
this week from the Nuba. Take care until next week from the Galloping
Peacemaker.  Michael

SITREP 4  *  22 OCT 04

GENERAL SITUATION

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) talks are underway and are proceeding apace (for this sort of business). The 7^th Mandate
which will take our operations (JMC) through July, 2005 should be announced in a couple of weeks. A Mandate is a 6 month extension
of our mission. After that period, nobody knows what may happen. By accord JMC operations are to terminate NLT 75 days after
signing of the CPA, to be replaced by a UN peacekeeping force.

The successes of the JMC in the Nuba have been in large part due to their efforts as an unarmed and impartial body to facilitate the
interactions between the two factions leading to gradual and viable improvement in relations. Whether the introduction of armed troops
 who are unfamiliar with the background leading up to the present conditions in the area will prove to be a better solution remains to be seen.

What will happen to the JMC personnel who are not currently serving members of national military forces in the event of a CPA signing,
which includes all the Americans, also remains to be seen. The UN, as I understand the rules, can only utilize serving members of
national military forces of member nations in its peacekeeping operations.

The rainy season is almost over. The roads are much improved, and speeds as high as 30 to 35 mph can be attained for short distances
 in some areas! I will have to learn how to drive on pavement again when I return to the Land of the Great PX.

SECTOR 3 OPS

We are mainly playing catch up in Military Inspections among the SPLA forces who have been difficult to reach up to now due
the road conditions in the AO. As the SPLA soldiers receive no pay, they are frequently dispersed to their homes and farms to
support themselves. This provides an excuse (often quite valid) to avoid the formal inspections of troops and (more importantly)
 arms stores. These M.I.s are among our more important tasks.

I am currently involved in dealing with allegations of GOS Police misconduct and abuse in the GOS controlled DMZ area.
Some have
 been dealt with already and I hope to clear up most, if not all, the remaining outstanding complaints on Sunday.

The most gratifying aspect of the whole affair is the cooperation and liaison between the GOS and SPLM Police chiefs in the area.
This has occurred without any prompting or involvement by JMC. The local GOS chief came to us to report that his SPLM counterpart
 had come to him for support and assistance. Of such building blocks are useful structures built.

In SITREP 3 I mentioned the “5C’s” continuum which I shamelessly borrowed from GEN Tommy Franks. I did not mention the third,
Coexistence, in my commentary on the local progress toward Peace and Brotherly Love. In the GOS controlled areas which are being
repopulated by returning IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) who are generally Christian and sympathetic to the SPLM, I would have to
say that the attitudes run from Coexistence to some level of Collaboration.

These areas are in some cases rather remote and difficult to visit or to keep track of. As conditions improve we hope to become
much more involved 2with the problems of these locales.

MICHAEL’S WORLD

I am still enjoying my work, and still feel that it has purpose and value. Yesterday my Sector Commander and I climbed up the jebel
 (large hill or small mountain depending on whether you see the glass half full or half empty) to visit the Medisins Sans Frontieres
(MSF), also known in the English speaking world as Doctors Without Borders. These people seem extremely dedicated and do much
 good under difficult and rather basic conditions. Part of our mission is keeping in touch with the NGOs in the area to support those
 who are doing good work and to report violations by those who may come with their own less productive agendas. I had no problem
sleeping last night after our little stroll.

And that about wraps it up for another week from the Nuba. Hopefully my friend and colleague Brian Steidle who is working in the
Nyala area will get a functioning computer at his location soon, and we will all be able to benefit from his on scene assessment of the
Darfur situation. Take care all.    Michael